Sunday, December 07, 2003

Kerry and Michael,

There seem to be several problems with the process of setting up an Iraqi government and Ayatollah Sistani is only one of them.

The first and possibly biggest problem is that the CPA is dominated by State Department personnel. This does not bode well based on past performance.

As for caucuses for delegates to the Provisional Government, I believe that is still up in the air. Iraqi minority groups (Sunnis, Kurds) are concerned that if delegates are selected in a general, nationwide vote they will not be represented well, if at all in laying out the country's future. Not to mention the former Baathists who are likely to be elected as well. It sounds as if Bremer has his work cut out for him and needs to start pushing more aggressively for regional caucuses - it is far too early for a general Iraqi election.

Third, the requirements in the Agreement on Political Process call for the following four elements in the intermediary Fundamental Law (a sort of transitional constitution): a "bill of rights"; a "federal arrangement for Iraq"; judicial independence and judicial review; and "civilian political control over Iraqi armed and security forces." However there is no requirement that these four principles be included in the final constitution!

And finally, it is never a good idea when a few unelected individuals have too much control of government (e.g. U.S. Federal Courts).

Tom

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