Saturday, August 17, 2019

SATURDAY NIGHT WHISPERING SONGS, JAPAN.

Whispering Sons with Alone. From their 2018 debut album Image.





Belgian postpunk band from the eastern province of Limburg. Formed in 2013.



Japan with Nightporter. Album Gentlemen Take Polaroids (1980).





Weird English new wave band around David Sylvian, formed in 1974.



Goede nacht.


MFBB.


BERLIN, GERMANY: ARAB CLANS' TERRITORIES EXPANDING.

The pink areas are where Arab clans rule.





The striped areas mark where their influence is growing. The cancer is metastizing.


The areas in question, where the influence of the clans is growing, are Charlottenburg, Lichtenberg/Marzahn, Tempelhof, Spandau, Wilmersdorf etc. More info here.



MFBB.

Thursday, August 15, 2019

UK: SOLAR, WINDMILLS OUT, RETURN TO NUCLEAR ENERGY?

Via The Mirror, August 12, 2019:


"A series of mini-nuclear reactors could be built across the North in a major power scheme.

Plants could generate energy in Yorkshire, Cumbria, Lancashire and Cheshire under a project spearheaded by Rolls-Royce for “small modular reactors”.


The Government is pumping in £18million so the firm can develop the design of the reactors.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to formally announce the plan in September and the first plant could be up and running within the next 15 years.

“These new mini nuclear reactors would be concentrated across the North — and plans are in motion to place them in the Sheffield city region, Cumbria, Lancashire and Cheshire,” a Government source told the Times.

“Nuclear is clean and a way of reducing the UK’s carbon footprint on a large scale.”

The reactors would trigger a jobs bonanza, with 40,000 posts expected to be created.

Each power station could generate enough energy to fuel 750,000 homes, according to estimates by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

Northern Powerhouse Partnership director Henri Murison said: “There is market ready technology available globally which can be put together with the UK supply chain, with us having what is needed to build them here in the Northern Powerhouse alongside investing in a large factory which this support will help us to achieve.

“Work undertaken by the Nuclear Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre has shown what can be achieved; ensuring that we build up our capabilities and all the resulting economic benefits of the jobs being here in making them.

“Our upcoming energy industrial strategy for the Northern Powerhouse will focus heavily on SMRs, fulfilling the promise of when George Osborne back in 2015 committed the funds to establish the UK as a leader in what was then an emerging area globally.”





Supporters say nuclear power is clean, efficient and renewable.

But critics believe it is too expensive, takes too long to clean up and the risks involved are too great.

Rolls-Royce’s website says: “At every point in the development of our UK SMR solution, we have sought to take a modular approach to drive down the cost of electricity to as low as practically possible, whilst at the same time building in multiple layers of fault prevention and protection to make sure the technology is safe in all modes of operation.”

But scientist Dr Ian Fairlie, of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, said: “The grandiose safety claims made about SMRs are reminiscent of false claims about nuclear power in the 1950s when it was said electricity would become too cheap to meter.

“SMRs are still vulnerable to nuclear accidents, terror attacks, and can produce more nuclear waste than conventional reactors per unit of electricity.”

Sheffield City Region mayor Dan Jarvis said: “The Sheffield City Region is superbly placed to support the development of small modular reactors technology.

"We can play a leading role in meeting the challenges of climate change while helping to keep the lights on.”

French firm EDF is building a £20billion nuke plant at Hinkley Point in Somerset."




Here's a brief technical overview, per the Rolls Royce website:






"A three loop, close-coupled, Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR)
provides a power output at circa 400-450 MWe from 1200-
1350 MWth using industry standard UO2 fuel. Coolant is
circulated via three centrifugal Reactor Coolant Pumps (RCPs)
to three corresponding vertical u-tube Steam Generators
(SGs). The design includes multiple active and passive safety
systems, each with substantial internal redundancy.Rapid, certain and repeatable reactor and overall power
station build is enhanced through site layout and maximising
modular build, standardisation and commoditisation. The UK
SMR design is illustrated below. The three loop reactor (Figure
1) is located in Nuclear Island, shown in red, adjacent to
Turbine Island, shown in yellow, with the Cooling Water Pump
House following, shown in blue (Figure 2). These facilities are
protected by a robust hazard shield. Support buildings and
those containing auxiliary services are situated within a berm
that sweeps around the site and provides further protection
from external hazards, e.g. tsunami or aircraft impact."





The reactor pressure vessel is of course the downmost cilinder in the centre. The pressurizer is the one slightly above it. The three cilinders arrayed around and above it are the Steam Generators. Here the water from the primary circuit, typically 315°C hot but held at 155bar to prevent boiling, transfers its heat to the secondary circuit water. This water, at "only" 60 bars, does start boiling. Its steam is then fed into turbines which in turn propel the generators, whence electrity is fed to the grid. A gif to refreshen your memory:





Anyway, Rolls Royce's SMR looks very much like the Chinese Hualong One design:




I'm a bit disappointed that the Rolls Royce design is apparently still a good old PWR reactor using classing Uranium Dioxide as fuel, and not a Molten Salt reactor. These use the relatively abundant Thorium-232 as the fertile material (the Th232 is transmuted, by shooting a neutron in it, in U-233, which is a good nuclear fuel), and have the advantage of producing less long-life term radioactive waste. Perhaps the costs of developing a reactor suited for a Thorium fuel cycle was considered too high. Perhaps there's still an echo of Cold War reasoning behind this continued UO2 and MOX preference. I don't know. Either way, reliance on this type of reactors is far more realistic than putting your bets on solar and windmills.


MFBB.


Tuesday, August 13, 2019

CERBERUS 2.0 SOFTWARE TOOL PREDICTS IMPLOSION OF DUTCH NATIVE POPULATION IN A FEW DECADES.

The GEFIRA Foundation has used the Cerberus 2.0 software tool to project the evolution of Dutch demographics and the resulting numbers are shocking - especially so for "BioDutch":


"A change in demographic trends takes 50 years before they become plainly visible. The decline in fertility in the sixties started to become visible after 50 years. Cerberus, our population simulator, shows with scientific precision that the replacement of the European society has started, and within 50 years it will be visible and irreversible.

Since the seventies of the previous century, the Western societies have not produced enough offspring to keep their communities growing. The fertility rate (i.e. the average number of children per woman) is far below 2.1. i.e. the level of replacement. A population with a higher rate will grow while a population with a lower rate will shrink. As it is, the Western and Japanese societies will begin to implode 40 years from the moment their fertility rate dropped, and this demographic winter, as this phenomenon is sometimes called, will affect the world more profoundly than the climate change, so politicians and investors should take notice.

According to official state data the Swedish, French and Dutch populations will keep growing for the foreseeable future despite their low fertility rates. Western politicians seem to be taking great pleasure in the population decline in Russia, but shouldn’t they first bother about their own turf? How e.g. is it possible that the number of residents in the Netherlands keeps growing if the number of the newborns is smaller and smaller?

To get an insight into the European situation the Gefira team developed Cerberus 2.0, a software tool that, using copious amounts of demographic data provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics, simulates the population development.

Cerberus, making use of the CBS Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics data, calculates how many people died and were born for every consecutive year from 1950 till 2100 and then creates a hypothetical Dutch population growth model without migration. This model overlaps with the official data up to 1980 (blue line in Figure 1 below). In the sixties, the Netherlands had an emigration surplus, i.e. more people left the country than arrived, while in the seventies the so-called mass immigration set in and the process was reversed.





A couple of years of immigration has no visible effect, which is why many immigration advocates argue that 50.000 arrivals against a population of 14 million, (i.e. 0.3 percent) is negligible. This is only true if it is a one-time event. If it happens year after year, it brings about a structural change of a population.

The cumulative effect of immigration became visible in the data after 10 years in 1980. The total population in the Netherlands grew according to the official CBS data (green line) much faster than the native population calculated by Cerberus (blue line). The native Dutch population reached a peak around 2015 at 15 million people, while the total number of inhabitants according to the CBS was 17 million and growing. The Dutch society will stay more or less stable with 18 million until 2060, the final year of the CBS projection. Cerberus on the other hand shows that in 2015 the Dutch population started to decline rapidly and in 2060 there will be 12 million Dutch left while at the end of the century there will only be 9 million native Dutch. The Dutch natives will become a minority. Due to demographic inertia it takes a long period before changes in fertility and migration are felt. We remind the reader that the Dutch fertility rate started to drop in the sixties and went below the point of replacement in 1973. Since then it will have taken more than 42 years before the Dutch native population starts to decline. The inevitable replacement of the people of Europe at the end of this century is already set in motion and we believe that after 2030 this process is irreversible.

We use Cerberus to calculate how many migrants are needed to keep the Dutch population stable at 18 million. We input into Cerberus the 1950 population and, starting in 1971, added 15%, 20% and 25% immigration-related growth. Our model showed that the population stabilized with a 25% extra growth, that is about 45 thousand immigrants annually, around 18 million people, which overlaps with the CBS projection

Cerberus proves that the Netherlands needs 45 thousand immigrants to meet the official projections of the CBS. The CBS data is the basis for governmental planning. The Dutch planners keep the mass-immigration unchanged for the foreseeable future instead of anticipating a sharp drop in population. Apparently, the Dutch establishment opts for the replacement of the Dutch society.


To perceive the consequence of the continuation of mass-immigration, one has to take a closer look at the population growth. When more immigrant children are born than those of Dutch natives the effect is not immediately visible, migrants will still be a minority of the total population but inevitably the Dutch will become a minority within that generation. To see how the growth of the Dutch population evolves we divided it into three components:

The steadily decreasing number of newborn native Dutch;
The steadily increasing number of non-native newborns;
A constant number of incoming immigrants.
These components are shown in Figure 2.

In 2060 50% of the growth in the Netherlands will be non-Western newborns (orange) and immigrants (red), and around 2070 50% of all newborns (orange) are non-native Dutch. From there it takes a further 25 years before the natives are a minority. The Cerberus projections are very optimistic as they assume the native fertility rate at 1.66. According to our separate calculation the real current native-Dutch fertility rate is much lower and close to 1.5. Cerberus shows that the next decades are crucial for the survival of the Dutch population. In 2060 we will cross the Rubicon and reach the point of no return, the Dutch will be inevitably replaced with a non-Western society. But in 2035, 17 years from now, the total growth of the non-Dutch population in the Netherlands will already be a shocking 42%. Measures to increase the fertility are rather counterproductive and will probably only increase the fertility rate of non-Western immigrants. It is said that in the seventies and eighties immigrant families with 6 kids were able to live on the child benefit.

Since the demographic decline is observable in all Western countries, we are in for Europeans being gradually replaced by peoples from Africa or South Asia. We are now at the eleventh hour and if we do not put an immediate stop to all immigration, the Dutch society will vanish into thin air."



Computer models are computer models and prone to serious flaws. Unforeseen circumstances can happen down the road which may affect the outcome of these dreadful projections. Yet, given that demographic evolution behave like massive oil tankers that cannot be turned around at a moment's notice, and that the trend of declining fertility among native Dutchmen and -women is a decades-old phenomenon, it is hard to escape the conclusion that IF the evolution sketched above has to be stopped, something drastic better happen soon. VERY soon.


Naturally, the story of The Netherlands, current pop. about 17 and a half million, is but a study in microcosm of the greater European picture. To varying degrees, EVERY European country suffers from the same predicament. The adamant refusal of the Spanish and Italian women to bear children is even far more outspoken than in Holland. UK, France, Belgium etc, same story.

And what are the consequences of this immoral, ignorant, materialistic attitude?

Look for yourself. This was, and is, Levenshulme High School for Girls, in Manchester, UK:





Nightmare.


MFBB.