Monday, September 19, 2005


Okay, guess you got wind of it already.

The German Christian-Democrats made a piss-poor performance. True, they scored biggest... with 35% of the vote or so. Schroeder's SPD made a dramatic comeback and stranded on 34.1% or something. Predictions were that the CDU/CSU would get 41% of the vote, so the mood at CDU/CSU HQ was pretty downcast. There was a blame game.

Other developments were:

* the pro business FDP of Guido Westerwelle got 10%, which in itself is very good, but it is assumed that somehow Merkel did not appeal/convince enough and that part of the vote which would otherwise have gone to Merkel now landed at the FDP.

* The Greens under Joschka Fischer stayed at around 7-8%.

* the newly raised extreme leftwing party Die Linke (The Left) under commie fossil Oskar Lafontaine also got some 8%. But since their rambling leftist discourse is as out of date as MFBB showing up in graying ponytail and loudly singing Europes "The Final Countdown" at an East Coast Spring Break Party, no one, not even Schroeder, wants to form a coalition with them.

Merkel made a weak claim that in the event of a "grand coalition" CDU/CSU with SPD, she ought to be Chancellor. And here it gets interesting. A jubilant Schroeder apparently went throught the roof. At press conferences yesterday he boasted that Germany "would be reigned another four years by Gerd Schroeder". Info here.

For a couple of hours, it had indeed sounded like it would be just that: a CDU/CSU forced to co-habitate with the SPD, effectively rendering political decisionmaking a lame duck. A nightmare scenario for German industry. But Schroeders claim that he would lead the coalition was so utterly arrogant that, well, that something clicked in the German political scene.

And now, and now, it's just that, I just read this over at David's Medienkritik... I can't believe it, it just seems too good to be true. Oh, of course, this is the correct way!!! A coalition CDU/CSU with the pro free market FDP was always the most favoured outcome. But with the Christian Democrat's poor performance unfortunately no longer feasible. But, if you add in the Greens, it again becomes possible!!!! And that's why there's now talk of the so-called "Jamaica Option", a coalition of CDU/CSU (black), FDP (yellow) and Die Gruene (green). Which are, as you understand by now, the colours of the Jamaican flag.

OK, let Ray D. of David's Medienkritik do the talking:

Most people, including myself, late last night forecasted a grand coalition of the conservative CDU/CSU and the left-wing SPD. Taken together, they would hold a large majority of the seats in Germany's new parliament. Then came chancellor Schroeder's freaky performance at elections eve's tv discussion (video) with other political leaders... and suddenly a coalition of CDU/CSU, the pro-business FDP and (hold your breath) the green party of foreign minister Fischer seems possible.

A "Jamaica coalition" of CDU/CSU (black),
FDP (yellow) and green party...

All parties involved would find it difficult to form a Jamaica coalition, but given the alternative of a grand coalition, the Jamaica option looks increasingly attractive. Especially the green party would face a grim fate as the smallest opposition party in case of a grand coalition. Even Jürgen Trittin, environmental minister under Schroeder and a prominent member of the green's left wing, made some encouraging remarks about the Jamaica option...

Juergen Trittin is the dork who made fun of the American response to Katrina. He's the kind of dudes who think that Katrinas are the result of GWB not signing the Kyoto Protocol. Oh, I know, the Greens are mostly loons. But the important thing is to get CDU/CSU and FDP together in one dish. If it takes the Greens to make that scenario possible, so be it. And their leader Joschka Fischer is more reasonable and more pro-US than you'd think. Some may remember how he got eggs thrown at him by pary members when he defended the US's intervention in the Balkans in the late nineties.

Dammit, yesterday I felt so down that I couldn't write. But if this thing could get through... Remember, with the Christian Democrats at the helm the relationship with the US will improve significantly. Plus, of course, in such an event the ambitious tax and economic reforms may still be implemented to a considerable extent. Thus, with good prospects for the German economy. And the German economy is the locomotive of Europe... Developing....


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