THE DISMAL PERFORMANCE OF THE RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES IN UKRAINE.

I can't make any sense of it. The Russians are failing on all counts. What's most obvious is that they are failing on the operational level, what with the ubiquitous footage of T-72s with their turrets blown of, charred hulks of APC's, dead bodies of Russian soldiers... and Ukrainian tractors towing away Putins tanks and mobile artillery.


Less obvious, but even more damning for the way Russia is waging this war, is the absolute failure on the strategic level. For over 60 days on end now, the Russian war machine has tried to engage the UA Army on a half-ring front beginning just west of Kiev and extending clockwise around Ukraine's eastern portion until Kherson. In the process, numerous Russian units have broken their teeth trying to neutralize city centers. During all of this, they allowed the free flow of all that is necessary for a modern army to fight from west to east - which doubtlessly happened during the night.

But if they had not wasted all those efforts in absurd and costly battles and instead staged two strong attacks, one towards the south from their foothold just West of Kiev and the other northwards from Kherson, they would have cut off that lifeline and bagged not only all of the UA Army in the east, but in the process strangled the defenses of Kiev and the other big cities as well. They don't know their own history anymore, for this area was once the scene of another big encirclement which cost them 600,000 troops with all their equipment.


Other failures presented themselves in not taking out all of the UA Air Force on Day 1, which, given the Russian Air Force's far bigger size, should have been possible to achieve. Then there is attacking just prior to the onset of Rasputista, turning Ukraines famous Black Earth, frozen until half February, into an impassable quagmire and confining even tanks to roads.


Let Michael Kofman weigh in now:

I’ve been traveling and not writing much these past two weeks. Some brief thoughts about the second phase of the war, Russia’s offensive to retake the Donbas, and implications. Thread. (map from Nathan below). 1/ pic.twitter.com/CLGRZimeLx

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) April 23, 2022

I don't know how this will turn out, but I hope the lines of communication between the West and Russia remain open, because barring a miracle, I fail to see how Russia can extricate itself from its self-inflicted disaster and still pretend it has 'achieved' its goals. Mounting losses and getting nowhere may lead the Russian top brass to employ tactical nukes, and when that happens... the road to Nuclear Armageddon lies wide open.


In light of all this, the EU's pathetic rushing of the process to accept UA's membership is utterly foolish. Instead, it should shut up now and keep quiet... while, instead of raking the fires of discontent and frustration n Moscow even higher, working quietly on a diplomatic way out of this mess for Putin so that he can save his sorry face - although the bastard by no means deserves it.



MFBB.