Wednesday, March 17, 2004

A friend of mine made an interesting point yesterday. We were talking about the ramifications of the Spain elections, and the point came up the the Spain electorate essentially just told Al Qaeda that they should attack us just before our presidential election in November, in hopes to achieve similar results. His point was that perhaps Al Qaeda would rather have Bush in office rather than Kerry. This sounded preposterous to me at first, but it's interesting when you think about it. If AQ is looking in the long term to defeat us, it may be easier for them to do this if they can completely isolate us from the international community first. The best way to do this would be to continue to attack coalition members other than the US with Bush still in the White House. The anti-Bush sentiment in Europe, coupled with ongoing terrorist attacks, could persuade other coalition members to call it quits, just as Spain has. With Kerry in the White House, relations with Europe (at least the non coalition states) would likely improve, which might make it more difficult for AQ to sever the ties between The US and Europe. AQ has shown considerable patience in the past. It might be that the answer to the question "Who would Osama vote for?" is different than you may think.

No comments: